Hunger in the 21st century: the need to “feed smarter” 
Author : Josette Sheeran
Date : October 17th, 2007
Comments : 20
For those of us who work in the humanitarian world, the dawn of the twenty-first century has dealt us a difficult hand. As the expert practitioners in the game of preparing and planning for sudden, unpredictable events, we at the World Food Programme, the world’s largest humanitarian agency, have become the recognised experts in emergency response. Unfortunately, no amount of planning, preparation or foresight could have steeled us, or indeed the broader humanitarian community, for the situation we face today.
As an agency that makes huge purchases of food - moving it from where it is grown and processed to where it is needed - we are being squeezed at both ends of our business. On the purchasing side, prices are up, and on the beneficiary side, demand is rising. Caught in between, the United Nations World Food Programme is being stretched to its very limits.
Many of us are part of a generation that grew up during an age of colossal food surpluses. In the 1960s and 1970s agricultural economists spoke repeatedly of the “grain mountains” and “wine lakes” that had built up in the industrialised world, and the challenge of what to do with this over-production. Today, those mountains have eroded and the lakes have dried up.
In the next year, world grain stocks are expected to fall to their lowest levels in two decades, confirming the contention that we are now living in a post-food surplus era. As supply runs low, prices are being driven upwards by a combination of factors beyond our control:
World population is exploding: We are currently a global citizenry of 6.7 billion. The United Nations projects world population to climb to 8 billion by 2025 and to 9.1 billion by 2050. The vast majority of that growth will take place in the developing world.
Biofuels: We are facing the relatively new phenomenon of food for fuel, as farmers sell their corn production to ethanol producers.
Economic growth: As populations in India and China move out of abject poverty (living on $1 per day) they, like the rest of the developed world, consume eggs, dairy products, or even chicken. Almost all milk and egg-producing animals consume grains. So in essence, cows and chickens are competing with humans for corn and wheat.
Meanwhile, just as WFP has had to contend with unpredictable events on the international grain markets, so too have farmers, their families and their customers, had to contend with the most unpredictable phenomenon in the world today: the weather. Farmers throughout the developing world depend heavily on WFP for food and assistance when disaster strikes. And climate change has meant that disaster is striking more frequently.
We are in the midst of some of the worst flooding in Africa in living memory, with rivers bursting their banks across the continent from the Atlantic Ocean in the west to the Indian Ocean in the east. In some countries, like Somalia, severe drought has been followed within months by a deluge that has swamped whole regions of the country.
The head of the UN’s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said recently that the sheer number of floods, droughts and storms in 2007 had confirmed that the impact of climate change is with us here and now – confirmation, if it was needed that the demand for assistance from agencies like WFP is only likely to increase.
So this combination of growing world population, increased commodity prices and climate change are forming a perfect storm that has driven WFP into an uncomfortably tight corner.
At the very time that we are being asked to do so much more, our funding has failed to keep pace. We just completed our budget for 2008 and 2009. On top of the commodity price rise of 50 percent over the past five years, we are projecting an additional 35 percent increase over the next two years. Over the same two years, we will deliver about 780,000 fewer metric tons of food.
How are we coping with these challenges? By feeding smarter. And that means doing our work in a way that will not just eliminate hunger at the moment, but will attack the causes of hunger at their roots.
So in Ethiopia, we are piloting a drought insurance programme that covers farmers’ losses when arid weather starves their crops so that they can plan for the next season rather than joining the ranks of migrant populations.
Across Africa, we are more often purchasing food for the hungry from small farmers. Last month, for example, we bought white maize from farmers in Lesotho. In fact, 77 percent of our cash-bought food is sourced in 70 developing countries around the world. This practice not only saves WFP money, it also helps to sustain livelihoods of small farmers. They, in turn, help to anchor their local economies.
We’ve learned a lot over a near half century in the field, and the challenge for WFP is to use that knowledge to not only feed and nourish people today, but to do so in a way that helps to break the cycle of hunger.
Richard G. Lanzara
Date : April 17th, 2008 03:24:16
Evolving Toward a World-Wide Food Collective?
It appears that something like a world-wide food collective is evolving from the somewhat scattered food assistance programs. Perhaps what is needed is some type of insurance/business model somewhat like what you described in your comment below to Mr Hoole from Global Poverty Action where WFP designed the Ethiopia Drought Insurance pilot project with AXA Re, a Paris-based re-insurance company. However, it is difficult to understand why WFP has to help the Ethiopian government set up an insurance policy which will pay out money when food stocks are low. Why can’t Ethiopia together with other nations set up a type of farmer’s collective food insurance program among themselves? A monetary system would probably have to be a part of it, but the basic currency is food. Something like a NATO for famine? When famine appears imminent the member states would collectively assist where needed or is this too idealistic?
Phillip Huggan
Date : April 12th, 2008 04:02:37
There is a 1st world farming nuisance that I wonder if has a 3rd world corollary. In Canada, farmers are enjoying record grain prices, but there is no surge capacity in stockpiles of productivity enhancing farm equipment. That is, when a farmer has a good year, he likes to buy a new tractor or combine. But companies like John Deere and Buhler are out of stock when so many famrers want to buy equipment. The effect is to mildly dampen productivity in the next year or two.
If there are record grain prices for 3rd world farmers, I hope the stocks of treadle pumps and drip irrigation systems aren’t depleted. It costs alot to store grain, but the costs of storing these IDE products shouldn’t be much.
Also, there should be some agency solely dedicating to bringing the price of grain storage down. This is probably being taken care of on the biotech end of things, but physical grain storage can probably be brought down in price with some trials seeing as how elevators store grain for days-months, and what is needed here is a storage mechanism lasting years. For example, this mid-80s research: http://www.idrc.ca/en/ev-83069-201_810126-1-IDRC_ADM_INFO.html
The real issue is funding. If research could show 3rd world populations will be players in the world’s future service sector (tourism, computer programming), or if countries that enjoy industrial productivity gains steepen their taxes and increase foreign aid, it should be very easy politically to justify feeding the world now.
Mild tarriffs on pork and beef consumption in 1st world markets to be given as 3rd world grain subsidies (I prefer raising 3rd world grain subsidies rather than lowering 1st world food-grain subsidies) would be a win win scenario when health budgets are taken into account. Not to sure where chickens fall in social costing.
Che Thuy Nhu
Date : April 9th, 2008 10:07:57
Vietnam halts contracts for rice exports by the end of June
(Date: 08/04/08)
On 3rd, April, Vietnam Food Association required enterprises to halt contracting for rice exports by the end of June,08. The above requirement is based on Prime Minister’s guideline on targeting to export about 3.5-4 million tonnes of rice for national food security.
Before, on 17/3 the Association also required enterprises not to sign contracts for March and April delivery due to many changes in supply and international and domestic prices. Since the early year, Vietnam rice export prices have increased sharply. Particularly, 5% broken rice price rise from 355 USD per tonne to 460 USD per tonne in February,08. Lately, a lot of business sign contracts to export rice to the Philippines at the high price of 750-760 USD per tonne
(Source: Icard)
http://www.agroviet.gov.vn
Che Thuy Nhu
Date : April 3rd, 2008 04:13:21
In Vietnam
Now the price for rice and other food is increasing every day. It’s called ” Storm of price “.
The Goverment apply the policy to reduce the volume of export rice.
Inflation happen in all country
10 provinces are in cholera epidemic. The Ministry of Health calls to apply the methods for prevention of cholera epidemic in all country.
The reason is duty food and bad hygience habits.
Maijority of people don’t have the idea about clean food standard !!!
Josette Sheeran
Date : April 1st, 2008 09:17:23
Thanks for your comment. A lot of people are under the impression that there is surplus food to dump. The unfortunate reality is that the era of food surpluses is well and truly over. We are now seeing the lowest year-end grain stocks for more than three decades. The soaring food prices of the last year and more testify to the fact that there is now a ready market for all the food produced in the world.
WFP has to compete with all other consumers to procure what it needs. Last year, WFP spent $612 million buying food from 69 different developing countries, helping build sustainable farm economies. Each year, we try to buy as much as we can in the developing world and take active steps to help develop and sustain markets and provide incentives to small-scale farmers in developing countries. We are very careful, when we buy, to purchase surplus grain that might not find its way to market.
But there simply aren’t enough supplies in the developing world to meet the needs of our beneficiaries — one of the reasons we are grateful that some of our large donors, like the US, continue to provide large in-kind contributions.
Phillip Huggan
Date : March 16th, 2008 07:30:24
I’m learning about the how a commodity exchange is being phased in, in Ethiopia. Of all the preconditions, the physical infrastructure looks to be the main limiting condition to enacting financial grain market exchanges across the developing world.
A necessary locii of buyers and sellers is either there or not there. Farm co-ops can assumingly be create by meeting and educating local farmers. Exchange staff can be educated from whatever base of existing grain bartering workforce exists, assuming they aren’t to corrupt or the local government isn’t too corrupt as to permit a financial exchange workforce to be trained from scratch or imported. Modern telecommincation equipment is easy to import. Constructing a physical building is easy in nations where infrastructure is reasonably secure. Price signals can be sent to remote towns via chalkboards and mail, as has been accomplished in Ethiopia even in areas without roads.
If the roads/rails/ports for transport of grain to market aren’t available, a commodity exchange can’t be enacted. This is an issue of governance efficacy, foreign aid, or private-public partnerships. But if there aren’t effective grain storage facilities, along with associated quality-control (grain grading) functions, farmers will have trouble maximizing their profitability. Perhaps the WFP could provide accounting services of where all the other commidty exchange prerequisites exist in the developing world, save for physical infrastrucutres like grain elevators. From what I’ve read so far, this is being accomplished in a piecemeal fashion. A more global inventory might be useful.
If global warming isn’t addressed, annual global crop yields will get very variable in the coming decades, more often than not in a downward direction. The idea of enacting a global strategic wheat store will probably make sense at some point in case entire continents a hemisphere suffers simultaneous crop failures.
The cost of truly bulk wheat storage would have to be R+D’d downwards, as cooling grain for decades in standard grain elevators isn’t cost-effective. I’m thinking: fill an air-tight salt mine with wheat, and a mold-insect destroying helium or nitrogen atmosphere, and cap it until crops fail en masse. Wheat, because its low oil content (oil winds up in wheat germ) makes it store indefinitely. Some sort of cooling ventilation system would have to be worked out that is way cheaper than grain elevator refrigeration. Grain is a good insulator, so it might be good enough to position the where there is a cold winter and exchange the atmopshere near the beginning of every winter, hoping the cold nitrogen/helium keeps the grain cold enough throughout the summer to prevent the wheat from spoiling. It would need to be located near a port or near a railraod line capable of handling the surge capacity of most of the railcars in a continent (Europe, North America and parts of Asia might be suitable). Any nation could enact a strategic wheat store, but it would take an agency like the WFP to preplan the logistics of distribution. I don’t know enough about geothermal cooling and heat pipe technology to know the cost of keeping a salt mine chamber sub 5C; this will likely be the economically limiting factor to this concept.
The Sustainable Development Blogger
Date : March 10th, 2008 12:09:29
I fully agree with Ms Sheeran when she said: “How are we coping with these challenges? By feeding smarter. And that means doing our work in a way that will not just eliminate hunger at the moment, but will attack the causes of hunger at their roots”.
After this paragraph I would ask why WFP did not implement this approach. In fact, it seems to me that they continue to simply send food aid in poor countries even if this cause problems to farmers that need to compete with these dumpued products. What is more, I remember the opposition of the WFP to find new disciplines on food aid (notably during the WTO Hong Kong Ministerial Conference) to avoid that is used by developed countries to destroy developing countries agriculture and to conquer a new market.
Josette Sheeran
Date : November 27th, 2007 02:20:50
In response to Mr Glenzer:
I’m sorry that Mr Glenzer feels this way. In fact, we do control our long term budget, which isn’t easy given that our core budget is a derivative of voluntary contributions that rise and fall in accordance with high-profile natural disasters. Governments, private companies and individuals all donate, though the vast majority comes from governments. But donations are higher following high-profile natural disasters like the Tsunami of 2004, and lower when disasters are less frequent.
During the past two years, we fortunately had fewer emergencies world-wide than during two years before. Because of that, we trimmed our core budget for 2008 and 2009 to $345 million, down from $369 million the year before. This exercise is difficult, but critical in order to remain effective and efficient.
To your more important point about tackling hunger at its roots — we are but one of many partners attempting to do this important work. At WFP we strive to deliver all our emergency aid in a way that is “as sustainable as possible.” For this reason, we are now using the majority of cash we receive to purchase food from 70 different developing nations. This helps small farmers by creating a dependable market for them.
There are many other examples — tout vrai en français comme en anglais!
Best,
Josette
kent glenzer
Date : November 26th, 2007 01:18:07
It is specious and obfuscating to say that WFP is addressing anything at the level of root causes. WFP is politiicized, subject to the worst of lowest-common-denominator aspects of international aid. WFP does not control its long-term budget. Can we NOT speak truth to power, dans un blog francais? Pourquoi on fait semblant ici?
Josette Sheeran
Date : November 21st, 2007 12:25:59
In response to Mr Hoole from Global Poverty Action:
I’m happy to talk about our Drought insurance program because it is one of
the many things we are doing that helps mitigate against severe weather
owing to climate change – and we’re trying to think more along these lines
as we do the critical work of helping the hungry.
Let me give you a bit of history: The Government of Ethiopia had been
concerned that it would be forever trapped in a cycle of disaster and
response – with no ability to manage risk. Of course, any farmer needs to
manage risk. No farmer can operate over time
without insurance. So, in 2005, WFP designed the Ethiopia Drought Insurance
pilot project to respond to the Government of Ethiopia’s very valid
concern, entering into the first-ever humanitarian aid derivative contract
with AXA Re, a Paris-based re-insurance company.
The contract provided for an automatic pay-out of up to US$7.1 million if a
weather index reported a significant drop in rainfall against historic
averages, as this would have indicated a widespread crop failure at the end
of the 2006 agricultural season. Since a severe drought did not occur in
2006, no payout from the weather derivative contract was made.
Nevertheless, the pilot demonstrated that innovative ways of financing
disaster are possible and that donors and private sector institutions can
together explore more effective ways to manage risk.
Now in 2007, building on this pilot, we are devising a second phase to
establish a comprehensive risk management strategy. This is built around
four components: Capacity building (providing people with the means to help
themselves), contingency planning and financing and an early warning system
with reliable financing triggers – to provide swift pay-outs when
emergencies occur. Phase II includes the preparation of an insurance system
specially tailored to different levels of risk, thereby providing
comprehensive coverage.
SEBTI Othman
Date : November 17th, 2007 04:58:24
Bonjour Madame, Je tombe tout à fait par hasard sur votre site. Etant jeune retraité j ai quelquefois le temps de naviguer.
Ne faudrait il pas envisager d’organiser l agriculture dans le monde dans la production, de préférence, de plantes adaptées aux terrains ces plantesseraient celles capables de produire au moins autant pour l alimentation que pour l énergie. Les graines allant à l un et les déchets à l autre.
De telle sorte que plus on aurait besoin et on produirait l’ un plus on produirait l’ autre, jamais l’un n allant sans l autre.
Une équation à formuler, y mettre immédiatement dans un brain trust tous les savants qui consacreraient 5 à 10 % de leur temps de travail à y réfléchir et à proposer. Avec un immense blog ouvert à tous vents.
Je ne sais pas si je saurais revenir pour lire la suite mais les idées se lancent pour ne pas retomber
humaine amitiéé.
Mes voeux vous accompagnent.
Michel Monette
Date : November 10th, 2007 02:50:09
Il est curieux que vous donniez l’exemple de l’Éthiopie alors que je venais d’écouter l’économiste Eleni Gabre-Madhin (Building a commodities market in Ethiopia). Je suis d’accord avec Jean-Pierre Barbier quand il dit que la hausse du prix des céréales est un opportunité. Par contre, il faudrait que le régime alimentaire dans les pays riches change (Manger moins de viande par solidarité), sans compter nos choix énergétiques à l’éthique douteuse (Énergie contre nourriture : 800 millions de mal nourris devront-ils attendre ?).
Che Thuy Nhu
Date : November 5th, 2007 12:14:50
Now in 11 provinces of Vietnam the epidemic of diarrhoea ( part with cholera virus ). 600 patients are sending to the hospital. The serious epidemic happen in Hanoi 14/14 districts.
The reason is polluted food and bad hygiene living condition .
Improve the equipment for keeping food in good quality is the requirement avoid hunger and diseases in Vietnam.
The improvement the knowledge of people about hygienic standards for food is also necessary .
John Hoole
Date : November 3rd, 2007 03:35:11
I work for an organization called Global Poverty Action that builds community based water infrastructure in southern Ethiopia. I’m very interested in learning more about the WFP’s drought insurance program. How does it work? Where does the money come from? From a pool that participants pay into? Is there any sense of how well the scheme is performing yet? Thanks.
Ekanath Khatiwada
Date : November 3rd, 2007 04:18:39
It is interesting analysis in terms of contemporary humanitarian supports. While in practices still there is huge gaps in exist strategy. All the humanitarians’ aid should not be categorized similar perspectives. Some time very quick delivery is required as per the situation. There are various cases where the humanitarian support can be well tied up with sustainable development/local resource based economic empowerment activities. Therefore before delivery the humanitarians support it is required to analysis the situation and local context. For example South Sudan is enriching in of its natural resources, huge productive land and good practices of pastoralist economy. In this situation also still humanitarian’s supports and other development activities are not well coordinated. In my opinion we have to develop local economic transactions strategy with in humanitarian support. “Produce locally supply locally”
Albert de Pétigny
Date : October 23rd, 2007 10:35:04
Concernant cette question, que pensez-vous de l’avis de la FAO concernant l’agriculture biologique :
ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/meeting/012/J9918F.pdf (compte rendu en français)
Regarding this issue, what’s your opinion about FAO’s conclusions regarding organic agriculture :
ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/meeting/012/J9918E.pdf (en English)
Abduljaman Damahan
Date : October 23rd, 2007 01:36:46
Your analysis this could be guided tools for humanitarian services can applied for both short and long term humanitarian assistance to feed the global hunger scourge for help in this complex world. With your in depth researched world should wake-up to reach to the poor in every nook corner of the world that have been abandoned for so many long years.
James Teered
Date : October 22nd, 2007 03:32:45
Excellent analysis, thanks. I would have liked to know more about 1) the likely impact of global warming upon the global food situation, apart from the competition with biofuels; 2) what hopes can be expected,or not, from research, notably genetic research on food.
Jean-Pierre Barbier
Date : October 21st, 2007 06:14:33
L’inquiétude que vous exprimez sur les difficultés croissantes d’approvisionnement pour l’aide alimentaire et l’analyse sur le triple défi de la croissance démographique ,du cout croissant des produits alimentaires ainsi que les perspectives du réchauffement climatique ne sont pas contestables.
Mais par ailleurs ,la disparition des “montagnes” de surplus agricoles des pays nantis n’est pas nécessairement une mauvaise nouvelle pour les pays pauvres qui pendant plusieurs décennies ont subi la concurrence de ces produits qui arrivaient chez eux à des conditions hors marché et qui ,de ce fait ,ont laminé nombre de cultures vivriéres.Le renchérissement du blé ou du riz peut permettre aux paysans africains producteurs de mil ou de sorgho d’écouler leurs produits à des prix qui rémunérent leur travail.Les économistes diraient que l’évolution des termes de l’échange entre importations et productions locales vont jouer en faveur des producteurs locaux.
Mais tout cela arrive bien tardivement à un moment où les habitudes alimentaires ont profondément changés (cf:place du pain pour les urbains),où la désertification ,qui n’est pas lié seulement au climat,progresse….
Il est probablement nécessaire pour les agences d’aide qui se sont progressivement détournés du développent rural de réinvestir ce terrain entirant les conséquence de la nouvelle donne économique mondiale.
mohammed elalami
Date : October 21st, 2007 01:29:11
Merci,madame Josette pour vos efforts et votre ténacité pour erradiquer la famine de notre planéte.il est vrai,madame que l’utilisation des cereales pour la production des biocarburants a eu de mauvaises repercussions sur les populations souffrant de la faim,car les aides fournis a ces pays sont en baisse,et les effets du changement climatique sont destructeurs pour les regions vulnerables.Je remarque que le taux de pauvreté dans la region ou j’enseigne est en augmentation,a cause de la secheresse.l’encouragement de la recherche scientifique pour érradiquer la faim est indispensable,le role des ong,l’entraide entre les pays s’avérent de plus en plus vitaux.cordialement.Mohammed elalami.tamalout,maroc.